Oct 25 2009

Individual Offensive Efficiency Ratings Extracted from Play-by-Play Data

Tweet I’m unsatisfied with the usefulness of individual efficiency ratings that estimate the offensive and defensive impact of a player on a lineup’s efficiency by simply controlling for the strength of teammates and opponents. This is because these ratings don’t really give any insight into what the individual players are actually doing. These ratings are [...]

Oct 5 2009

Is One Lineup Better Than Another?

Tweet One part of Wayne Winston’s new book Mathletics that I didn’t really like was the way he compared raw lineup data to determine if one lineup is better than another. After thinking about it more, I think the real reason I don’t like his method is because he compares the lineups’ net points per [...]

Sep 7 2009

A Basic Hierarchical Model of Efficiency

Tweet In my last post on retrodicting team efficiency, I set a general baseline that can be used help determine if a new model of team efficiency makes better predictions than a naive model. This is important, as we want to know if added model complexity is worth the hassle. This post will present a [...]

Aug 30 2009

Retrodicting Team Efficiency

Tweet Regardless of the many models we may examine, we are ultimately looking to predict team efficiency. To move in this direction, we have to know how well the most basic methods predict team efficiency in order to determine if more complex methods are actually better than a simpler model. Retrodiction versus Prediction To best [...]

Feb 10 2009

Predicting Team Rebounding Rates

Tweet As we saw in my post on ranking net efficiency ratings, we don’t gain a lot of information by ranking NBA efficiency ratings at the team level. In other words, finding each team’s rating does not affect their overall ranking very much. The same holds true for offensive and defensive rebounding rates, and I [...]