Apr 1 2010

My 2010 NCAA Tournament Rating Methods

Tweet On March 21st I presented some work on rating college basketball teams with an emphasis on estimating win probabilities in future games at SIAM-SEAS 2010. You can download the following presentation for more details of the methods: Estimating the Probability of Winning a College Basketball Game In this presentation I look at two ways [...]

Mar 18 2010

My 2010 NCAA Tournament Odds

Tweet Last year I posted my odds for the 2009 NCAA tournament, and this year I’ve made some improvements to help me fill out my bracket. This year I’ve modeled the difference in each team’s mean points per possession per game. This model can then be used to estimate the probability of one team beating [...]

Mar 19 2009

My 2009 NCAA Tournament Odds

Tweet Brackets are now closed, and the first NCAA tournament game of the 2009 tournament is about to begin. Therefore, it’s time I post my odds of winning the tournament. The Method I used Kenneth Massey’s least squares method to rate and rank each DI team’s net points per possession per game. In other words, [...]

Feb 4 2009

Ranking Net Efficiency Ratings

Tweet I’ve been lucky enough to take part in an independent study with my advisor this semester, where I study various methods for ranking things, like sports teams. Our specific area of application is the NCAA tournament, but these methods can be used for much more. My main interest is in how to apply ranking [...]