My 2010 NCAA Tournament Odds
Last year I posted my odds for the 2009 NCAA tournament, and this year I’ve made some improvements to help me fill out my bracket.
This year I’ve modeled the difference in each team’s mean points per possession per game. This model can then be used to estimate the probability of one team beating another team. [...]
Adjusting Individual Defensive Efficiency Ratings
A couple of months ago I presented individual defensive efficiency ratings for the 2008-09 regular season that I extracted from play-by-play data. In this post I will present a method for adjusting these ratings in an attempt to get a clearer picture of a player’s defensive abilities.
Adjusting the Defensive Ratings
To adjust these defensive ratings I [...]
A Basic Hierarchical Model of Efficiency
In my last post on retrodicting team efficiency, I set a general baseline that can be used help determine if a new model of team efficiency makes better predictions than a naive model. This is important, as we want to know if added model complexity is worth the hassle.
This post will present a basic hierarchical [...]
Retrodicting Team Efficiency
Regardless of the many models we may examine, we are ultimately looking to predict team efficiency. To move in this direction, we have to know how well the most basic methods predict team efficiency in order to determine if more complex methods are actually better than a simpler model.
Retrodiction versus Prediction
To best assess differences in [...]
Rating Player Defensive Fouls Drawn and Committed
I have no idea how important defensive fouls are. This bothers me, as fouls are an important part of the game. Clearly you’d prefer to draw more fouls than you commit, but how important is it relative to the other things players do? How might a player and team increase (decrease) the number of fouls [...]