May 6 2010

My Bachelor’s Essay

Tweet My senior research and writing project at the College of Charleston is complete, and the result of it is my bachelor’s essay. I’ve titled it “Modeling Basketball’s Points per Possession With Application to Predicting the Outcome of College Basketball Games”, and the associated abstract for the paper is below: In this paper we consider [...]

Apr 1 2010

My 2010 NCAA Tournament Rating Methods

Tweet On March 21st I presented some work on rating college basketball teams with an emphasis on estimating win probabilities in future games at SIAM-SEAS 2010. You can download the following presentation for more details of the methods: Estimating the Probability of Winning a College Basketball Game In this presentation I look at two ways [...]

Mar 18 2010

My 2010 NCAA Tournament Odds

Tweet Last year I posted my odds for the 2009 NCAA tournament, and this year I’ve made some improvements to help me fill out my bracket. This year I’ve modeled the difference in each team’s mean points per possession per game. This model can then be used to estimate the probability of one team beating [...]

Jan 7 2010

Adjusting Individual Defensive Efficiency Ratings

Tweet A couple of months ago I presented individual defensive efficiency ratings for the 2008-09 regular season that I extracted from play-by-play data. In this post I will present a method for adjusting these ratings in an attempt to get a clearer picture of a player’s defensive abilities. Adjusting the Defensive Ratings To adjust these [...]

Sep 7 2009

A Basic Hierarchical Model of Efficiency

Tweet In my last post on retrodicting team efficiency, I set a general baseline that can be used help determine if a new model of team efficiency makes better predictions than a naive model. This is important, as we want to know if added model complexity is worth the hassle. This post will present a [...]

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