Jul 20 2009

Rating Player Defensive Fouls Drawn and Committed

Tweet I have no idea how important defensive fouls are. This bothers me, as fouls are an important part of the game. Clearly you’d prefer to draw more fouls than you commit, but how important is it relative to the other things players do? How might a player and team increase (decrease) the number of [...]

Jul 10 2009

A Model for Offensive Rebounding Rates

Tweet A few months ago I took my first look at trying to neutralize rebounding rates. Since that time I’ve given a lot of thought as to what we really want to know about rebounding rates. In an ideal world we could measure a rating for each player that would allow us to parameterize rebounding [...]

Jul 2 2009

Measuring 3pt Shooting Ability With a Multilevel Model

Tweet Over the past couple of months I took an awesome class on categorical data analysis. Although it may not sound like it, this sort of data analysis has a lot of application to basketball, as it covers analyzing and building models for things like odds of events, probabilities of success, etc. Although we didn’t [...]

Jun 28 2009

The Time Distribution of Events in the NBA

Tweet In my quest to create a realistic simulation of the NBA, I’ve come to the point in which I need to answer an important question: how long does it take for an event to occur after the start of a play? We don’t actually have to care about the time distribution of events to [...]

May 31 2009

Conditioning the Distribution of Play Ending Events Given How the Play Starts

Tweet My last post took a very general look at how plays end in the NBA. To better understand how the game works, it’s important to know how these distributions vary based on how the play starts. How Do Plays Start? Plays can start in a variety of ways. I’ve broken these ways into the [...]

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