Aug 30 2009

Retrodicting Team Efficiency

Tweet Regardless of the many models we may examine, we are ultimately looking to predict team efficiency. To move in this direction, we have to know how well the most basic methods predict team efficiency in order to determine if more complex methods are actually better than a simpler model. Retrodiction versus Prediction To best [...]

Jul 20 2009

Rating Player Defensive Fouls Drawn and Committed

Tweet I have no idea how important defensive fouls are. This bothers me, as fouls are an important part of the game. Clearly you’d prefer to draw more fouls than you commit, but how important is it relative to the other things players do? How might a player and team increase (decrease) the number of [...]

Jul 10 2009

A Model for Offensive Rebounding Rates

Tweet A few months ago I took my first look at trying to neutralize rebounding rates. Since that time I’ve given a lot of thought as to what we really want to know about rebounding rates. In an ideal world we could measure a rating for each player that would allow us to parameterize rebounding [...]

Jul 2 2009

Measuring 3pt Shooting Ability With a Multilevel Model

Tweet Over the past couple of months I took an awesome class on categorical data analysis. Although it may not sound like it, this sort of data analysis has a lot of application to basketball, as it covers analyzing and building models for things like odds of events, probabilities of success, etc. Although we didn’t [...]

Mar 19 2009

My 2009 NCAA Tournament Odds

Tweet Brackets are now closed, and the first NCAA tournament game of the 2009 tournament is about to begin. Therefore, it’s time I post my odds of winning the tournament. The Method I used Kenneth Massey’s least squares method to rate and rank each DI team’s net points per possession per game. In other words, [...]

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