Practical Unit vs. Unit Efficiency Ratings
In my last post I looked at theoretical unit vs. unit efficiency ratings. Now I will take a more practical look at calculating these ratings. In the theoretical case we made the assumption that we could know for sure a 5-player unit’s shot distribution, 2pt and 3pt shooting percentages, and turnover and rebounding rates. Clearly, […]
Theoretical Unit vs. Unit Efficiency Ratings
So lets say you visit your local magic shop and find a device that will magically give you the true probabilities associated with a 5-player unit’s offensive and defensive performance. You know, the important probabilities associated with things like offensive and defensive field goal percentages, rebounding percentages, and turnover rates. As cool as it is […]
Bridge Jumper Team Projections
Last week Mountain from the APBRmetrics forum updated his projections for the 2008-2009 season based on 10% of games being played. This made me wonder what a bridge jumper’s projections would look like. For this case, I define a bridge jumper as someone who ignores all historical data and believes that only data from this […]
Now Updated Daily: 2008-2009 Play-By-Play Data
Play-by-play data for the 2008-2009 regular season is now available and will be updated on a daily basis. For more details, visit the data page. To go straight to the data where you can download a ZIP archive or data from an individual game, visit the 2008-2009 download page. The Format This data is in […]
The Average Number of Starters Based on Lead
Now that I’ve looked at how the average number of starters changes based on time, I want to take a look at how this statistic changes based on a team’s lead (or deficit). The ultimate goal from all of this is to model realistic substitution patterns over the course of a game, as this is […]