Nov 30 2008

Practical Unit vs. Unit Efficiency Ratings

Tweet In my last post I looked at theoretical unit vs. unit efficiency ratings. Now I will take a more practical look at calculating these ratings. In the theoretical case we made the assumption that we could know for sure a 5-player unit’s shot distribution, 2pt and 3pt shooting percentages, and turnover and rebounding rates. [...]

Nov 24 2008

Theoretical Unit vs. Unit Efficiency Ratings

Tweet So lets say you visit your local magic shop and find a device that will magically give you the true probabilities associated with a 5-player unit’s offensive and defensive performance. You know, the important probabilities associated with things like offensive and defensive field goal percentages, rebounding percentages, and turnover rates. As cool as it [...]

Nov 18 2008

Bridge Jumper Team Projections

Tweet Last week Mountain from the APBRmetrics forum updated his projections for the 2008-2009 season based on 10% of games being played. This made me wonder what a bridge jumper’s projections would look like. For this case, I define a bridge jumper as someone who ignores all historical data and believes that only data from [...]

Nov 8 2008

Now Updated Daily: 2008-2009 Play-By-Play Data

Tweet Play-by-play data for the 2008-2009 regular season is now available and will be updated on a daily basis. For more details, visit the data page. To go straight to the data where you can download a ZIP archive or data from an individual game, visit the 2008-2009 download page. The Format This data is [...]

Oct 31 2008

The Average Number of Starters Based on Lead

Tweet Now that I’ve looked at how the average number of starters changes based on time, I want to take a look at how this statistic changes based on a team’s lead (or deficit). The ultimate goal from all of this is to model realistic substitution patterns over the course of a game, as this [...]

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