College Basketball: Rating Individual 3FG%
- 1,149 Comment
My last post presented a model for predicting 3FG% based on a player’s ability, age, and role in the offense. A comment by DSMok1 inspired the model I will present in this post. He writes:
I was considering how best to create an “equalized” measure of 3pt and 2pt % for college players, based on the opposition played and the usage percentage. In other words, I would create a notional percentage for each player based on a usage rate of 20%, playing NCAA-average opposition.
Do you think that you could do a similar regression for 2Pt%, and post it?
Although he specifically requested 2FG%, in this post I will present a model of college basketball 3FG% that controls for player ability, opponent strength, experience, and role in the offense.
The Data
To build this model I collected each player’s made and attempted three point field goals for every season from 2002-03 to 2008-09, and I kept only those player seasons that attempted at least 50 three point field goals. I separated this data by opponent, and I kept track of how often this player was in the data set as a proxy for that player’s experience.
Also, I calculated every player’s usage% for each season. Usage% is the percentage of his team’s possessions that the player can be considered responsible for, as defined by Dean Oliver in Basketball on Paper. Thus this usage% includes assists, and it is constructed using Dean’s formulas for the NBA from his book.
The Model
With this data I fit the following model:
[latex]Pr({\tt 3FG make}) = {\tt logit}^{-1}(\alpha + \beta_{1}({\tt usage}) + \beta_{2}({\tt experience}) + \beta_{3}({\tt long}))[/latex]
This logistic regression was fit as a multilevel model to allow the intercept to vary by player and opponent. This allows us to estimate player ability while controlling for opponent strength. In this model long indicates if the attempt is from the 2008-09 season in which the NCAA moved the three point line back to 20 feet 9 inches from 19 feet 9 inches.
The Results
The average player results are as follows:
- Coefficients: [latex]\alpha = -0.490[/latex], [latex]\beta_{1} = -0.557[/latex], [latex]\beta_{2} = 0.028[/latex], [latex]\beta_{3} = -0.034[/latex]. The p-values for testing if the true values of these parameters are equal to zero are all less than 0.01.
- Usage: The coefficient for usage, [latex]\beta_{1} = -0.557[/latex], suggests that for each additional 1% in an individual’s usage% the odds the individual makes a 3FG attempt are decreased by 0.55%. As we would expect, this suggests that a player that increases their usage from 20% to 21% would expect to see their odds of making a 3pt FG attempt decrease by 0.55%
- Experience: The coefficient for experience, [latex]\beta_{2} = 0.028[/latex], suggests that for each one year increase in experience the odds the individual makes a 3FG attempt is increased by 2.8%.
- Long: The coefficient for the longer 3pt distance, [latex]\beta_{3} = -0.034[/latex], suggests that the odds of making a 3pt shot from the longer distance are 3.3% lower than the odds of making a 3pt shot at the shorter distance.
Player Estimates
This model fit helps us cut through the noise and estimate a player’s ability against league average opponents. As the graphs below show, there is a lot of uncertainty in a player’s individual 3FG% in any one season. Further compounding these yearly results is the fact that players face different levels of competition, and they may take on a larger role in their team’s offense as they gain experience.
The first graph I will present is that of Davidson’s Stephen Curry:
This graph shows Stephen’s estimated ability as a function of experience (the x-axis) and usage (blue=10% usage, black=20% usage, and red=30% usage). Below the x-axis you will see the actual usage% for each season to go along with the average percentile ranking of opponent 3FG% defense, where 50% represents average, >50% above average, and <50% below average opponents. The black dots and associated lines extending from these dots represent the sample 3FG% for the season and the 95% confidence interval for the player’s true 3FG% ability during the season.
While Stephen ranks 11th in this model of all players from 2002-03 to 2008-09, current star of the College of Charleston, Andrew Goudelock, ranks a surprising 41st. His graph is below:
Another player graph that may be of interest is Duke’s J.J. Redick:
Translating to the NBA
Although this model helps us estimate a player’s ability in college, we’re ultimately interested in translating this to the NBA. There are a lot of highly ranked players that never play in an NBA game, as simply being able to shoot 3pt shots well isn’t enough to succeed in the NBA.
That said, the next step is to examine players that actually make it to the NBA and determine what this model says about their ability to shoot 3pt shots against that level of competition.
frenchie gpt
[…]here are some links to internet sites that we link to because we consider they’re really worth visiting[…]
clima de veracruz
[…]usually posts some incredibly fascinating stuff like this. If youre new to this site[…]
french bulldog adoption
[…]below youll locate the link to some web pages that we consider you should visit[…]
top french bulldog breeders in the world
[…]just beneath, are quite a few totally not associated web sites to ours, even so, they are surely worth going over[…]
malegra 100mg oral jelly
malegra pour femme
qvar inhaler 200 mcg
qvar coupon
Vidalista 20
Vidalista
crypto
[…]although sites we backlink to below are considerably not connected to ours, we feel they are essentially really worth a go through, so possess a look[…]
French Bulldog puppies in Austin
[…]just beneath, are several absolutely not connected websites to ours, even so, they’re surely really worth going over[…]
French Bulldog Registration
[…]just beneath, are quite a few absolutely not related websites to ours, nonetheless, they are surely really worth going over[…]
linh hoang
[…]check below, are some entirely unrelated web sites to ours, nonetheless, they are most trustworthy sources that we use[…]
an351 cost
an 351
stendra tablets in india
avanafil stendra
how to obtain dog papers
[…]Here is a superb Weblog You may Discover Fascinating that we Encourage You[…]
furosemide 12.5 mg for dogs
furosemide 20 milligrams
generative engine optimization
[…]please go to the web-sites we stick to, like this a single, as it represents our picks in the web[…]
blue french bulldog
[…]usually posts some very interesting stuff like this. If youre new to this site[…]
how can you get papers on a dog
[…]Wonderful story, reckoned we could combine a couple of unrelated information, nonetheless actually really worth taking a search, whoa did a single find out about Mid East has got much more problerms as well […]
australian shepherd
[…]very handful of web sites that take place to become comprehensive beneath, from our point of view are undoubtedly effectively worth checking out[…]
how can you get papers on a dog
[…]here are some links to web pages that we link to simply because we believe they are worth visiting[…]
micro bully
[…]Here is a superb Weblog You may Obtain Fascinating that we Encourage You[…]
texas heeler
[…]one of our guests just lately suggested the following website[…]
yorkie poo mix
[…]we prefer to honor a lot of other internet sites on the net, even when they arent linked to us, by linking to them. Beneath are some webpages worth checking out[…]
american bully life span
[…]we came across a cool internet site which you might get pleasure from. Take a appear for those who want[…]
maltese yorkie mix dog
[…]the time to read or pay a visit to the content or internet sites we’ve linked to beneath the[…]
goldador dog
[…]we came across a cool web site that you might appreciate. Take a look in the event you want[…]
mixed breed pomeranian chihuahua
[…]just beneath, are numerous absolutely not associated web-sites to ours, nonetheless, they may be surely worth going over[…]
buspar price
5 mg buspirone
kamagra gold kamagra
kamagra vs cialis
stromectol price
ivercid 3
cialismalew.com
cialismalew.com
cialisbelg.com
cialisbelg.com
hitabs.com/hydroxychloroquine
hitabs.com/hydroxychloroquine
stromectolist.com
stromectolist.com
College Basketball: Rating Individual 3FG%
http://harmoniebeselare.be/jeugdensemble/contact/
stromectole.com
stromectole.com
nolvadexotc.com
nolvadexotc.com
College Basketball: Rating Individual 3FG%
https://monitor-master.ir/سلام-دنیا/
pharmvolk.com
pharmvolk.com
ro private server
[…]Here is an excellent Weblog You might Uncover Intriguing that we Encourage You[…]
zpak.net
zpak.net
iwermectin.com
iwermectin.com
pharmduck.com
pharmduck.com
College Basketball: Rating Individual 3FG%
https://lincdrix.com/why-do-you-need-an-seo-company/
wix seo experts
[…]below youll discover the link to some web pages that we believe you’ll want to visit[…]
wix seo experts
[…]Every as soon as inside a although we pick blogs that we study. Listed beneath would be the most up-to-date web pages that we decide on […]
wix seo service
[…]Here are several of the web-sites we advise for our visitors[…]
wix seo service
[…]one of our guests recently encouraged the following website[…]
College Basketball: Rating Individual 3FG%
https://aquamark.co.zw/drinking-water-disinfection/